First, Happy New Year everyone! I hope this year turns out great for everyone.
That said, it’s a new year but not new rhetoric from China’s Xi Jinping. Thanks to him though, my first blog post of 2019 is about Taiwan and China. In a speech on January 2, Xi chose to make a grand demand that Taiwan “must and will” agree to “unification” with China. He also said reunification would be peaceful, yet warned about using military force (the irony). Xi also said that “Chinese don’t fight each other” which is actually wrong because Chinese have always fought each other. Just in the last century alone, there was the Civil War which saw the Communists come to power, the Cultural Revolution, which saw millions of Chinese die at the hands of other Chinese, and the Warlord Period of the 1920s, when China was carved up by Chinese warlords. Not to mention the infamous Tiananmen tragedy in 1989.
Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen responded afterwards on the same day by refuting this demand, and rightfully so. Tsai was adamant that Taiwanese did not want unification, especially not under the “one country, two systems” concept, which has already been applied in Hong Kong and which has not had a positive effect. Tsai further added that talks could be possible between Taiwan and China, but only if both meet as equals as sovereign states.
China has claimed Taiwan for a very long time and has made demands for Taiwan to “unify” in the past. This year though, Xi’s speech focused heavily on “unification,” which raises concerns that he might turn to military means to force the issue. After all, starting a war against a foreign foe to divert attention from domestic troubles and boost nationalism is something that dictators have done before.
China is going through a lot of domestic problems now, especially serious economic issues and an ongoing trade war with the US (though further tariffs have been suspended for 90 days). The Chinese authorities have intensified crackdowns on major churches and even student Marxist organizations, while continuing to detain at least a million Uyghurs in Xinjiang. So it would be plausible to think that Xi is desperate and deluded enough to want to attempt an armed invasion of Taiwan. I personally don’t think there is a big chance of success for several reasons though (as do some experts), but Xi has shown he thinks highly of himself, given he made himself leader for life last year by abolishing presidential term limits.
But whether Xi’s tough talk on Taiwan might be just talk or a prelude to something much more serious, the reality is that Taiwan is a country. Only its people, the Taiwanese, can determine Taiwan’s future.