Dubai times 1,000 — or worse! Such is the calamity that one investor sees China heading for. Having grown at a continuously high rate even during last year, China’s economy is overheated and due to experience a deep crash, due to lots of speculative capital and excessive construction. Coming from the guy who foresaw the fall of Enron, this opinion should be heeded. For me, it doesn’t take much to persuade me as I perceive China with a wary eye.
To even it out, this thoughtful piece describes China’s growing assertiveness and power, including at the recent Copenhagen summit, as part of a prediction on the world at the end of 2020. The article, not surprisingly, sees China continuing to prosper, including moving from an economic giant now to a powerhouse in 2020, with its military, industry and technology capabilities all advancing significantly. But there are some reasonable and not-so-obvious points- that the U.S. will not so much as weaken or regress, but see a relative decline in its dominance, due to the increasing economic and geopolitical clout of China and Southern powers like India, Brazil and South Africa.
The writer’s view that China’s leadership has 3 main goals raises an interesting question. There is nothing far-fetched about his stance that the leaders’ priorities are to maintain the Communist Party’s hold on power, continue economic growth and to restore greatness to China. Given the great sense of pride by Chinese in their culture and history, something that goes beyond mere nationalism and ideology, it’s not inconceivable that achieving the latter goal will ensure the first goal for the regime. But what happens if many Chinese feel the opposite? Or start to understand that the second goal will not naturally ensure or maintain the latter goal?